Having already come to some conclusions about my poker game choices, I thought I'd take a closer look at my results from the two types of game that have yielded the best results.
Looking at single table tournaments (sitngos), I can see that the winning sessions are quite frequent, with many periods of successive wins. Where there are losing sessions, they usually occur singly, or occasionally in groups of two or three. Until recently, the biggest run of losses I had was eight in a row, but the next highest group was only four losses in a row. Then, in July/August, I had the following sequence: 5L, 1W, 8L, 1W, 8L. Fortunately, this is followed by three winning sessions in a row. It's starting to look like I hit a rough patch. Although it's early days, I seem to be returning to my usual W/L pattern in these games.
In multi-table tournaments, listing the number of losing games between each tournament cash, the pattern looks like this: 1,4,2,WW,1,WW,7,16,3,6,WW,1,1,WW,2,1,(7). Where there is a comma, there is a single win and WW means two wins in a row. The number in brackets is my current string of losses. It should be noted that any cash is counted as a win, even if it is barely a money-back win. It seems to me that I am doing pretty well over-all, and there's no need to panic just yet. I've had a run of seven losses before; in fact my worst run amounted to sixteen losses in a row. I have no desire to break that particular record, and I think it's unlikely that I will. Patience is required.
As if all that wasn't enough, I've also been looking at the notes that I sometimes make during games to see if I can detect any patterns. After trolling through these comments, I've come up with a list of my most frequent mistakes. Going from least frequent to most frequent, here they are:
**Calling all-in pre-flop with KQ or a weak Ace
**Trying to bluff a donkey
**Calling an all-in bet with top pair or less
**Playing marginal hands from early position
**Pushing all-in in the face of a raise or re-raise
**Calling an all-in bet post-flop when an obvious draw appears on the board.
It seems to me that the best thing I can do to improve my game is to stop calling all-in bets, unless I have
(a) the nuts or
(b) a very good reason to believe that my opponent is bluffing.
When you have a good hand it can be hard to believe that someone has drawn a better one. If you raise pre-flop with AK or QQ and someone re-raises or goes all-in, you just don't want to believe that they have AA or KK. When you finally hit top pair on the flop and get re-raised, you don't want to know about overpairs or trips. When you flop trips and your big bets get called until a third heart hits the board on the river, you don't want to give your opponent credit for his rivered flush. Nevertheless, it's something I'm going to have to learn to do. Discipline is required.
As for playing marginal hands out of position, I do it far less often than other players. Even so, poker is a game of information, and you can't get much information from early position. I need to keep an eye on that bad habit.
Finally, I need to keep reminding myself of the golden rule: YOU CAN'T BLUFF A DONKEY.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Tuesday, 4 September 2012
Analyse This
I've been keeping records of my poker results for almost four years now. I started on the advice in some poker book I was reading and the original idea was to keep track of my overall progress. Since then, I've added a lot of detail to my record-keeping, the idea being to be able to compare my results in different game types and buy-in levels. Considering my recent loss of form, I thought now would be a good time to try and make some sense of all that information. Maybe it will help me to find a way of at least slowing the current downward trend.
First, the big picture. I've been record-keeping since October 2008. Nowadays I use a measure of big blinds won or lost to gauge my results, as this allows a comparison between games at different buy-in levels. However, I started out just measuring dollars won/lost, so I'll use that measure for the whole period. I just have to bear in mind that that will tend to skew the results towards the earlier period when I was playing in the more expensive live games.
In those early days I was buying in a lot and not winning much, so my bankroll built up a big negative balance. However, I eventually started winning more than I lost and in time I started approaching the break-even point. In September of last year I finally hit positive territory and I stayed in the black until last month. The downhill slide that started in July dropped me below the break-even point and ever since then I've been flirting with that line, sometimes being above it and sometimes below. In July I lost 21% of my total bankroll and in August, another 19%!
Looking back at the last four years of poker play, I can see that my games fall roughly into three periods. Although these periods overlap each other to some degree, they still provide a useful basis for comparison. Period 1, from October '08 to March '10, was dominated by live ring games, usually with a large buy-in. Period 2, from February '10 to October '11, was dominated by live Texas Holdem tournaments, with somewhat cheaper buy-in levels. Period 3, from February '11 to August '12, was the online poker period, involving a variety of low-buy-in games. So, looking at each of these periods in turn, how did I do?
1. THE RING GAMES. The only game from this period that shows a positive result is my home game. This was an occasional spread limit dealer's choice game that I played with some friends. Even though there was a significant rake in this game, I still did pretty well over-all. The other games were all in the negative. I had a small loss in the casual 9-card games played at a local pool tournament. But Texas Holdem games yielded the biggest losses. I had moderate losses in both live and online TH no limit. The online games were played on Fulltilt Poker and I started at a much higher level than I should have. The live games were played at the casino and were the most expensive games I've ever played in, typically costing around $100 to buy in. But the worst results of all came from three games of TH fixed limit that I organised at my local club. The total loss from these three games alone wiped out the gains from the home games. Fortunately for me, I couldn't find enough players to keep these games going.
2. LIVE TOURNAMENTS. These tournaments were invariably pub games, typically costing $10 to $20, usually with rebuys and add-ons. I played in these on a regular basis for about a year and a half, starting out badly but eventually chalking up a few wins. Overall, I had a good result with these games, about the same as that from the home games.
3. ONLINE GAMES. The online games are much cheaper to play in than the live games, so their results don't have such a large effect on the overall result. Of the four online game types played in this period I've had the best results from Multi-Table Tournaments. The win from these games is comparable to that from the home games and the pub tourneys. Of the three other game types, I've had a moderate win from SitnGos and a moderate loss from Fixed Limit TH, so these two more or less cancel each other out. The worst results from this period come from Omaha. The Pot Limit Omaha that I played online last year yielded a significant loss, as did the handful of Spread Limit games that I played live. Taken overall, this period showed a neutral result.
So, what can I learn from all this?
Well, the obvious conclusion is somewhat surprising to me. I've always preferred playing in ring games rather than tournaments. I consider ring games to be 'real' poker. I seek out tournament structures that are deep-stacked, and therefore closer in style to ring games. But I actually have much better results from tournaments.
My best results have come from Texas Holdem no limit tournaments, both live and online, single and multi-table. The only other significant positive comes from the Spread Limit home game. Unfortunately, that game died out some time ago and is unlikely to return.
The worst results come from ring games, Texas Holdem and Omaha, live and online, all limit structures. You could knock me down with a feather.
Two important principles of poker are bankroll management and game selection. It seems to me that much of my losses derive from playing games that I haven't mastered at levels that are too high. Even though my recent losses have been in tourneys, things would not look so bad if I hadn't lost so much in previous years, playing in poorly chosen games. From now on I'm going to concentrate on my strengths. Although I still fully intend to keep trying different versions of the game, any new games I try will be at the absolute lowest level. Meanwhile, I'll keep plugging away at the online tournaments.
After all, spring is in the air, the kowhai is in flower and the birds are building their nests. What better time to spend hours staring at a computer screen?
First, the big picture. I've been record-keeping since October 2008. Nowadays I use a measure of big blinds won or lost to gauge my results, as this allows a comparison between games at different buy-in levels. However, I started out just measuring dollars won/lost, so I'll use that measure for the whole period. I just have to bear in mind that that will tend to skew the results towards the earlier period when I was playing in the more expensive live games.
In those early days I was buying in a lot and not winning much, so my bankroll built up a big negative balance. However, I eventually started winning more than I lost and in time I started approaching the break-even point. In September of last year I finally hit positive territory and I stayed in the black until last month. The downhill slide that started in July dropped me below the break-even point and ever since then I've been flirting with that line, sometimes being above it and sometimes below. In July I lost 21% of my total bankroll and in August, another 19%!
Looking back at the last four years of poker play, I can see that my games fall roughly into three periods. Although these periods overlap each other to some degree, they still provide a useful basis for comparison. Period 1, from October '08 to March '10, was dominated by live ring games, usually with a large buy-in. Period 2, from February '10 to October '11, was dominated by live Texas Holdem tournaments, with somewhat cheaper buy-in levels. Period 3, from February '11 to August '12, was the online poker period, involving a variety of low-buy-in games. So, looking at each of these periods in turn, how did I do?
1. THE RING GAMES. The only game from this period that shows a positive result is my home game. This was an occasional spread limit dealer's choice game that I played with some friends. Even though there was a significant rake in this game, I still did pretty well over-all. The other games were all in the negative. I had a small loss in the casual 9-card games played at a local pool tournament. But Texas Holdem games yielded the biggest losses. I had moderate losses in both live and online TH no limit. The online games were played on Fulltilt Poker and I started at a much higher level than I should have. The live games were played at the casino and were the most expensive games I've ever played in, typically costing around $100 to buy in. But the worst results of all came from three games of TH fixed limit that I organised at my local club. The total loss from these three games alone wiped out the gains from the home games. Fortunately for me, I couldn't find enough players to keep these games going.
2. LIVE TOURNAMENTS. These tournaments were invariably pub games, typically costing $10 to $20, usually with rebuys and add-ons. I played in these on a regular basis for about a year and a half, starting out badly but eventually chalking up a few wins. Overall, I had a good result with these games, about the same as that from the home games.
3. ONLINE GAMES. The online games are much cheaper to play in than the live games, so their results don't have such a large effect on the overall result. Of the four online game types played in this period I've had the best results from Multi-Table Tournaments. The win from these games is comparable to that from the home games and the pub tourneys. Of the three other game types, I've had a moderate win from SitnGos and a moderate loss from Fixed Limit TH, so these two more or less cancel each other out. The worst results from this period come from Omaha. The Pot Limit Omaha that I played online last year yielded a significant loss, as did the handful of Spread Limit games that I played live. Taken overall, this period showed a neutral result.
So, what can I learn from all this?
Well, the obvious conclusion is somewhat surprising to me. I've always preferred playing in ring games rather than tournaments. I consider ring games to be 'real' poker. I seek out tournament structures that are deep-stacked, and therefore closer in style to ring games. But I actually have much better results from tournaments.
My best results have come from Texas Holdem no limit tournaments, both live and online, single and multi-table. The only other significant positive comes from the Spread Limit home game. Unfortunately, that game died out some time ago and is unlikely to return.
The worst results come from ring games, Texas Holdem and Omaha, live and online, all limit structures. You could knock me down with a feather.
Two important principles of poker are bankroll management and game selection. It seems to me that much of my losses derive from playing games that I haven't mastered at levels that are too high. Even though my recent losses have been in tourneys, things would not look so bad if I hadn't lost so much in previous years, playing in poorly chosen games. From now on I'm going to concentrate on my strengths. Although I still fully intend to keep trying different versions of the game, any new games I try will be at the absolute lowest level. Meanwhile, I'll keep plugging away at the online tournaments.
After all, spring is in the air, the kowhai is in flower and the birds are building their nests. What better time to spend hours staring at a computer screen?
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